Dec 1, 2023·edited Dec 1, 2023Liked by Prof. Kimberly Nicholas
Richard Heinberg, an author about ecology and energy use here in California, once spoke at a lecture I attended. He was talking about our addiction to fossil fuels and how dependent we have become on them over the past 150+ years. After he'd gone through his slides, a woman from the back of the room raised her hand and said, "This is SO depressing! How can you get up in the morning and keep going?" Heinberg looked at her with a warm smile and said, "It's easy: Optimism is the only viable strategy." He'd just said, so succinctly, what I've been trying to tell folks: Working with the belief that you ARE making a difference is the only way forward. Living with despair and doing nothing is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Such a great story, thanks for sharing Debbie! And such a rich and complicated topic, how different people relate to/are motivated by hope/optimism vs love vs meaning/purpose, making a difference... personally I find meaning more sustaining in the long run. I desperately want to make a difference (and keep CO2 out of the atmosphere), but I also have to acknowledge it’s really hard to measure/witness the specific difference I make. That doesn’t mean it’s not there, but that I cannot rely on the global emissions curve as the only metric by which I judge my impact.
I've been struggling a lot with giving up on climate thoughts lately. The news are not making it easy. Yet, I also find that even the smallest efforts I do for the environment, make me feel better. While they do not have a huge impact, they do help with motivation. And that's important for keep going :)
Thanks for this Agnes! Sorry to hear you’re struggling. You’re definitely not alone! 💚It’s weirdly encouraging to know so many share this feeling (including those doing the most for climate!). Your experience that taking action feels better and gives motivation aligns with a study we have in review. Hope to be able to share it here early next year. Take care and keep going! 💚
Have you ever driven by someone on the sidewalk who was trying to catch a bus, and they just missed it? Something I love to do is pull over, open the car door, tell them to hop in, and then RACE to get them to a bus stop a few blocks ahead of the bus. It's exhilarating! It's possible we have missed the last bus on climate change, but it's possible we haven't. We can all pile in the car together, and race to get ahead of this. It's way more fun than pretending there's no problem, or scrolling the bad news on the internet alone. There are so many cool people we get to do this with! (Yeah, sorry for the automobile metaphor, you can tell I was raised in Southern CA!)
Kim, we "met" on twitter but I'm trying to leave there (moving to bluesky although I appreciate your advice to have less screen time in general). I am wondering about the best way to get in touch with you about the possibility of coming to Maine while you're in the region?
Hi You are of course quite right, and you now I am inclined to doom doom about CC, Biodiversity loss etc etc.... But in the end do we put a paper bag over our heads and say go away nasty thing, or at what ever level try to make changes. And of course we never know what is out there, lots of surprises will likely abound as they have always done to date. So for once follow Winston Churchill's advice and Keep b.......g on! Well done and Thanks Martin
Haha gotta love talking about blocking social media apps on social media 🙃 I just use the settings built into iPhone that I only recently realized were there! Focus/Do Not Disturb and Screen Time/App Limits. You can override the screen time limit for 1, 15 mins or the day, but it adds just enough friction that it cuts me off from doomscrolling most of the time.
A gamechanger for me has been setting a daily alarm for 10:30pm to wind down, to help me towards my goal to be in bed by 11pm. Somehow the phone does a pre-alarm at 9:45 that I don’t remember setting, but which is good for me to actually be ready because I’m an extreme time optimist.
Basically I read a million articles on optimizing bedtime routines and I tried all these complicated self care rituals once, then realized I just have to try to pack lunch, put out clothes for Future Me who will still be a time optimist tomorrow morning but also not a morning person, then brush my teeth and get in bed!
Can you tell I have a problem??? Have tried a few blockers but what is really needed is a shift in dopamine generation, I think. Am always comatose by 10pm, so I have at least nailed that one. 🫠
Good job on nailing bedtime! That's where I struggle.
I wonder if rest generates dopamine, maybe not as it's more slow-paced? My totally uninformed guess is that restful activities feel good in the body when paid attention to. (btw have you read Unwinding Anxiety by Judson Brewer? this is kinda his idea, if I'm not misrepresenting it too much from having listened to half the audiobook while distracted). So maybe need to seek more active things like exercise, sunshine (um... yes I realize we live in Sweden...)
we should go to Tivoli and ride roller coasters together for dopamine :)
Being a retired old old geezer who lives by himself, "early to bed and early to rise" works well for me. Always try to get to bed before sunrise, and rise before noon. But in case of missed targets resulting in less than 7 hours snooze before noon, no qualms about sleeping into the afternoon.
Such a great post, Kim! I appreciate the concrete advice for how those engaged in a life of trying to make a difference can rest. It’s a great time of year to be emphasizing this topic--my newsletter is also about rest this week! Rest for the sake of rest--rather than future productivity--takes a major, and challenging, paradigm shift for the overachievers among us 😄. Thank you!
Haha, glad to be in the Pro-Rest Overachievers Club in good company, Andrea! Hm, maybe we can optimize rest with hacks, technology, bullet journaling and some exquisite product placement... am I doing it right?!? 🙃
Your argument that warming will stop when we eliminate emissions is quite misleading. What would be a more accurate and important statement to make is that the increase in global heating may stop some years after zero emissions is achieved.
But temperatures sharply elevated over what they are now will continue at these high levels for decades if not centuries along with not just continuing sea level rise but also continuing ecosystem collapse and tipping point activation. Which is a recipe for planetary dystopia.
The only way to avoid this dystopia is the massive Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and the cooling of the climate through sunlight reflection or other means.
So I would urge you to paint a realistic picture of what is in store for the 8 billion of us and not sugarcoat it by implying that reaching net zero will lead to a livable climate as it won’t
Hi Herb, you're right that temperatures remain elevated from pre-industrial levels, which causes plenty of harm. I detail the research on the impacts of 1.5 vs 2 vs 3°C in Chapter 2 of Under the Sky We Make.
What the figure above shows is that temperatures will stabilize (further warming will cease) once humans stop emitting CO2. Climate stability, i.e., halting anthropogenic warming, is the goal of the Paris Agreement. Going to zero emissions will not undo the warming that has already happened in the past and until today, shown in the first panel ("Historical"). Cumulative emissions determine what temperature climate will reach. The rate of emissions determines how fast climate will warm. When emissions go to zero, warming stops. The faster we can get there, the less dangerous the impacts will be.
Dec 5, 2023·edited Dec 5, 2023Liked by Prof. Kimberly Nicholas
I feel it's also important to state the urgency of reaching this stability level before crossing too many tipping points and activating too many feedback loops. I may be wrong, and for sure I don't know the temperature level at which this can happen, but my understanding of the science I've read is that from a certain temperature onward the climate will heat by itself even if we stop emitting. Am I wrong?
Hi Radu, yes tipping points are a huge worry! I write about them in UNDER THE SKY WE MAKE, and there's a new report out from Tim Lenton's group that goes into excruciating detail. For a good overview, see Carbon Brief.
I don’t think that science shows that anything like climates stability will be reached when net zero occurs even if temperatures stop their increase.
First because multiple largely irreversible tipping elements will likely be activated at temperatures not all that much higher than we’re experiencing today leading to extreme instability.
Secondly as I mentioned in my earlier comment last month sea level rise will continue its relentless increase which can hardly be characterized as stability and ecosystem collapse even if tipping points are not literally activated will continue to occur with severe catastrophic consequences for the natural world and civilization as we know it.
I don’t think that the consequences of a world post net zero have been adequately described to the public. most members of the public even those who are reasonably knowledgeable about Climate have no idea how bad things will continue even after decarbonization is achieved - and of course there’s 25 to perhaps 50 years of increasing instability and chaos if and until the world reaches net zero that will make 2023 seem like a planetary oasis.
If we are able to drastically reduce carbon emissions rapidly, the chart shows heat uptake in oceans also gradually declines, so WHY does sea level rise continue to go UP, and quite a lot on the chart? With such an increase in sea level rise wouldn't society, as we know it, collapse?
Informative graphs on temperature and sea level after zero emissions - both the average and the uncertainty of the estimates.
Here is my messaging that keeps me positive that I'm achieving progress - and I simply don't fret over the level of progress - all progress, however small, is good. Of course, I hope for world changing progress as others join me in the messaging, and it "spreads like a virus". So, Kim and all you readers, I do hope you join me in the messaging!!
Consumers (individuals, organizations, businesses, governments) must promptly minimize their greenhouse gas emissions to bridge the gap while we work on long-term green technology and infrastructure. Less heating and less cooling (none between 13C-30C/55F-85F, https://greenbetween.home.blog). Less driving. Less flying. Less meat-eating. Less population growth (2 children max). Do it yourself. Tenaciously encourage others to do it.
As someone who has kind of given up, I did not get convinced (and I was even keen that I might). I do not agree that there is no way to know what impact we will have. We might not be able to know with certainty, that is true, but it is not merely random either. In my work, I have elaborated a bit more on that.
Richard Heinberg, an author about ecology and energy use here in California, once spoke at a lecture I attended. He was talking about our addiction to fossil fuels and how dependent we have become on them over the past 150+ years. After he'd gone through his slides, a woman from the back of the room raised her hand and said, "This is SO depressing! How can you get up in the morning and keep going?" Heinberg looked at her with a warm smile and said, "It's easy: Optimism is the only viable strategy." He'd just said, so succinctly, what I've been trying to tell folks: Working with the belief that you ARE making a difference is the only way forward. Living with despair and doing nothing is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Such a great story, thanks for sharing Debbie! And such a rich and complicated topic, how different people relate to/are motivated by hope/optimism vs love vs meaning/purpose, making a difference... personally I find meaning more sustaining in the long run. I desperately want to make a difference (and keep CO2 out of the atmosphere), but I also have to acknowledge it’s really hard to measure/witness the specific difference I make. That doesn’t mean it’s not there, but that I cannot rely on the global emissions curve as the only metric by which I judge my impact.
More naps as part of a climate solution? Sign me up!
Thank you for sharing, Kim!
I've been struggling a lot with giving up on climate thoughts lately. The news are not making it easy. Yet, I also find that even the smallest efforts I do for the environment, make me feel better. While they do not have a huge impact, they do help with motivation. And that's important for keep going :)
Thanks for this Agnes! Sorry to hear you’re struggling. You’re definitely not alone! 💚It’s weirdly encouraging to know so many share this feeling (including those doing the most for climate!). Your experience that taking action feels better and gives motivation aligns with a study we have in review. Hope to be able to share it here early next year. Take care and keep going! 💚
Have you ever driven by someone on the sidewalk who was trying to catch a bus, and they just missed it? Something I love to do is pull over, open the car door, tell them to hop in, and then RACE to get them to a bus stop a few blocks ahead of the bus. It's exhilarating! It's possible we have missed the last bus on climate change, but it's possible we haven't. We can all pile in the car together, and race to get ahead of this. It's way more fun than pretending there's no problem, or scrolling the bad news on the internet alone. There are so many cool people we get to do this with! (Yeah, sorry for the automobile metaphor, you can tell I was raised in Southern CA!)
Kim, we "met" on twitter but I'm trying to leave there (moving to bluesky although I appreciate your advice to have less screen time in general). I am wondering about the best way to get in touch with you about the possibility of coming to Maine while you're in the region?
Hi Kimberly, so happy to connect despite all the complications of navigating various platforms hahah. I saw your email - will reply after the weekend!
Hi You are of course quite right, and you now I am inclined to doom doom about CC, Biodiversity loss etc etc.... But in the end do we put a paper bag over our heads and say go away nasty thing, or at what ever level try to make changes. And of course we never know what is out there, lots of surprises will likely abound as they have always done to date. So for once follow Winston Churchill's advice and Keep b.......g on! Well done and Thanks Martin
hahaha I know it's serious when you're the one cheering me up, Martin!! I appreciate it and will do, you too :)
Which social media blocker do you use? And thank you for this post amid a sea of Substack ❤️
Haha gotta love talking about blocking social media apps on social media 🙃 I just use the settings built into iPhone that I only recently realized were there! Focus/Do Not Disturb and Screen Time/App Limits. You can override the screen time limit for 1, 15 mins or the day, but it adds just enough friction that it cuts me off from doomscrolling most of the time.
A gamechanger for me has been setting a daily alarm for 10:30pm to wind down, to help me towards my goal to be in bed by 11pm. Somehow the phone does a pre-alarm at 9:45 that I don’t remember setting, but which is good for me to actually be ready because I’m an extreme time optimist.
Basically I read a million articles on optimizing bedtime routines and I tried all these complicated self care rituals once, then realized I just have to try to pack lunch, put out clothes for Future Me who will still be a time optimist tomorrow morning but also not a morning person, then brush my teeth and get in bed!
Can you tell I have a problem??? Have tried a few blockers but what is really needed is a shift in dopamine generation, I think. Am always comatose by 10pm, so I have at least nailed that one. 🫠
Good job on nailing bedtime! That's where I struggle.
I wonder if rest generates dopamine, maybe not as it's more slow-paced? My totally uninformed guess is that restful activities feel good in the body when paid attention to. (btw have you read Unwinding Anxiety by Judson Brewer? this is kinda his idea, if I'm not misrepresenting it too much from having listened to half the audiobook while distracted). So maybe need to seek more active things like exercise, sunshine (um... yes I realize we live in Sweden...)
we should go to Tivoli and ride roller coasters together for dopamine :)
Being a retired old old geezer who lives by himself, "early to bed and early to rise" works well for me. Always try to get to bed before sunrise, and rise before noon. But in case of missed targets resulting in less than 7 hours snooze before noon, no qualms about sleeping into the afternoon.
Such a great post, Kim! I appreciate the concrete advice for how those engaged in a life of trying to make a difference can rest. It’s a great time of year to be emphasizing this topic--my newsletter is also about rest this week! Rest for the sake of rest--rather than future productivity--takes a major, and challenging, paradigm shift for the overachievers among us 😄. Thank you!
Haha, glad to be in the Pro-Rest Overachievers Club in good company, Andrea! Hm, maybe we can optimize rest with hacks, technology, bullet journaling and some exquisite product placement... am I doing it right?!? 🙃
You forgot spreadsheets 😂
Hahaha if they’re color-coded to perfection they’ll fundamentally change my personality this time right?!? 😂
Your argument that warming will stop when we eliminate emissions is quite misleading. What would be a more accurate and important statement to make is that the increase in global heating may stop some years after zero emissions is achieved.
But temperatures sharply elevated over what they are now will continue at these high levels for decades if not centuries along with not just continuing sea level rise but also continuing ecosystem collapse and tipping point activation. Which is a recipe for planetary dystopia.
The only way to avoid this dystopia is the massive Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and the cooling of the climate through sunlight reflection or other means.
So I would urge you to paint a realistic picture of what is in store for the 8 billion of us and not sugarcoat it by implying that reaching net zero will lead to a livable climate as it won’t
Hi Herb, you're right that temperatures remain elevated from pre-industrial levels, which causes plenty of harm. I detail the research on the impacts of 1.5 vs 2 vs 3°C in Chapter 2 of Under the Sky We Make.
What the figure above shows is that temperatures will stabilize (further warming will cease) once humans stop emitting CO2. Climate stability, i.e., halting anthropogenic warming, is the goal of the Paris Agreement. Going to zero emissions will not undo the warming that has already happened in the past and until today, shown in the first panel ("Historical"). Cumulative emissions determine what temperature climate will reach. The rate of emissions determines how fast climate will warm. When emissions go to zero, warming stops. The faster we can get there, the less dangerous the impacts will be.
I feel it's also important to state the urgency of reaching this stability level before crossing too many tipping points and activating too many feedback loops. I may be wrong, and for sure I don't know the temperature level at which this can happen, but my understanding of the science I've read is that from a certain temperature onward the climate will heat by itself even if we stop emitting. Am I wrong?
Hi Radu, yes tipping points are a huge worry! I write about them in UNDER THE SKY WE MAKE, and there's a new report out from Tim Lenton's group that goes into excruciating detail. For a good overview, see Carbon Brief.
Or, even better, from today: https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-climate-tipping-points-have-put-earth-on-disastrous-trajectory-says-new-report
Thank you, Kim! I am checking it out right now. For others that read this comment section, here's a link: https://www.carbonbrief.org/tipping-points-how-could-they-shape-the-worlds-response-to-climate-change/
I don’t think that science shows that anything like climates stability will be reached when net zero occurs even if temperatures stop their increase.
First because multiple largely irreversible tipping elements will likely be activated at temperatures not all that much higher than we’re experiencing today leading to extreme instability.
Secondly as I mentioned in my earlier comment last month sea level rise will continue its relentless increase which can hardly be characterized as stability and ecosystem collapse even if tipping points are not literally activated will continue to occur with severe catastrophic consequences for the natural world and civilization as we know it.
I don’t think that the consequences of a world post net zero have been adequately described to the public. most members of the public even those who are reasonably knowledgeable about Climate have no idea how bad things will continue even after decarbonization is achieved - and of course there’s 25 to perhaps 50 years of increasing instability and chaos if and until the world reaches net zero that will make 2023 seem like a planetary oasis.
If we are able to drastically reduce carbon emissions rapidly, the chart shows heat uptake in oceans also gradually declines, so WHY does sea level rise continue to go UP, and quite a lot on the chart? With such an increase in sea level rise wouldn't society, as we know it, collapse?
Informative graphs on temperature and sea level after zero emissions - both the average and the uncertainty of the estimates.
Here is my messaging that keeps me positive that I'm achieving progress - and I simply don't fret over the level of progress - all progress, however small, is good. Of course, I hope for world changing progress as others join me in the messaging, and it "spreads like a virus". So, Kim and all you readers, I do hope you join me in the messaging!!
Consumers (individuals, organizations, businesses, governments) must promptly minimize their greenhouse gas emissions to bridge the gap while we work on long-term green technology and infrastructure. Less heating and less cooling (none between 13C-30C/55F-85F, https://greenbetween.home.blog). Less driving. Less flying. Less meat-eating. Less population growth (2 children max). Do it yourself. Tenaciously encourage others to do it.
As someone who has kind of given up, I did not get convinced (and I was even keen that I might). I do not agree that there is no way to know what impact we will have. We might not be able to know with certainty, that is true, but it is not merely random either. In my work, I have elaborated a bit more on that.
https://www.greenstories.org.uk/fairhaven/
We are taking our new book, 'Fairhaven, a novel of climate optimism ' to cop28
It is our take on how to fix it